SEATTLE (AP) — COVID-19 transmission in Washington is rapidly decreasing, according to the newest modeling report from the state Department of Health.

While cases, hospital admissions and deaths remain high, trends are moving in the right direction, DOH’s most recent COVID-19 modeling and surveillance report says. However the Seattle Times reports health experts caution that much of how the next few months unfold is based on upcoming holiday gatherings and seasonal behavior changes.

The new report found that COVID-19 prevalence — the percent of residents with an active virus infection — has been declining significantly since early September.  The newest estimate reflects about a 50% drop in residents with an active COVID-19 infection since last month.