(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve will unveil on Wednesday its latest decision on interest rates, marking the first such move since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove up gasoline prices and risked a wider bout of inflation.
The elevated price increases coincide with a slowdown of economic growth, threatening to intensify an economic double-whammy known as “stagflation,” which poses difficulty for the Fed.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but raises the likelihood of a cooldown in economic performance.
Markets are expecting the Fed to hold interest rates steady. Investors peg the chances of interest rates being left unchanged at about 99%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The central bank maintained the current level of interest rates at its most recent meeting in January, ending a string of three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A lackluster jobs report last week showed the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, which marked a reversal of fortunes for the labor market and erased most of the job gains recorded in 2026.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
A revised government report last week on gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a sluggish annualized pace of 0.7% over the final three months of 2025.
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
U.S. crude oil prices hovered at about $96 per barrel on Tuesday, soaring more than 50% since a month earlier.
Since the military conflict began, U.S. gas prices had gone up 81 cents to an average of $3.79 per gallon as of Tuesday, according to AAA.
The rate decision on Wednesday will also mark the first such move since a federal judge blocked Justice Department subpoenas to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors after determining the government “produced essentially zero evidence” to support a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, according to an unsealed court opinion.
“A mountain of evidence suggests that the Government served these subpoenas on the Board to pressure its Chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning,” U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said in his opinion on Friday.
Acting U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro blasted Boasberg as an “activist” judge and pledged to appeal his ruling.
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